Could AI Increase Productivity by 3%? CFOs Seem to Think so

A survey from the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that CFOs did not see widespread changes to employment as a result of AI in 2025, and do not anticipate seeing a significant impact in 2026. 

The survey, which had insights from 750 CFOs, found that the main driver for organisational investments in AI was increased productivity, rather than headcount reductions.

Despite this, more than 54,000 layoffs attributed to AI were announced in 2025 – but some critics have suggested that companies may be ‘AI washing’ many planned job cuts.

This includes Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, who told attendees at the AI Impact Summit in February: “I don’t know what the exact percentage is, but there’s some AI washing where people are blaming AI for layoffs that they would otherwise do, and then there’s some real displacement by AI of different kinds of jobs”

Increasing workforce productivity

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the mean productivity growth attributable to AI was 1.8%. CFOs surveyed anticipate this number almost doubling to 3% in 2026, as AI capabilities grow. 

These findings are mirrored by research from the University of California, Berkeley, which found from surveying a tech company over the course of eight months that employees are taking on a broader scope of work than they would have done before AI. 

Many employees reported feeling pressured to maintain this new level of productivity, with the report recommending that employees develop an AI structure to ensure productivity and quality output remain high – which involves developing undisturbed periods of focus for employees and building time for human connection.

Employment in the finance industry

Productivity gains are particularly present in the finance industry and high skill roles, says the report, with CFOs in the finance sector reporting an implied labour productivity growth – the change in revenue from a companies’ use of AI – of 0.8%. 

While CFOs report that the goal of AI investments is not to reduce headcount, some organisations are looking at shrinking their workforce as AI reshapes the finance sector. 

Jane Fraser, CEO of Citigroup, revealed in early 2024 that the bank would cut 20,000 jobs over a two year period, with the goal to reduce bureaucracy in the company. 

She told the Washington post: “AI has the potential to make tremendous changes. 

“It’s going to create huge numbers of new jobs that we can’t even imagine what they are today. It will change the nature of what people do every day … And it will take some jobs away.”

Decreases in administrative roles 

According to CFOs, the roles most likely to be lost from AI are routine clerical roles, with the survey finding that financial leaders see employment in this area decreasing by 2% by 2028. 

This covers roles with tasks such as filing, data entry and other administrative duties, but Aravind Srinivas, CEO of Perplexity, believes this could be a positive change in the long run. 

He told the All in podcast that, while there may be some “temporary job displacement,” as a result of AI, he believes the technology can help people become entrepreneurs and have more ownership over their work – improving wellbeing and job satisfaction.